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Monday, October 09, 2006

North Korea With A Bomb

The North Koreans apparently exploded a nuclear weapon early Monday morning. I say apparently because it has not yet been confirmed to be nuclear but it did hit magnitude 4.2.
My first thought was another failed Bush policy. Some people claimed this would be good for Bush if they spin the "fear" aspect of a nuclear North Korea. I don't buy it. This is failed policy where Bush wants nothing less than regime change... again.

I'm no expert on the North Korea problem but I have found a few people with some very good info and well worth the read if you want to learn about the problem.

From talking points memo
His conclusion:
But facts are stubborn things.

The bomb-grade plutonium that was on ice from 1994 to 2002 is now actual bombs. Try as you might it is difficult to imagine a policy -- any policy -- which would have yielded a worse result than the one we will face Monday morning.

Talking tough is great if you can make it stick and back it up; it is always and necessarily cleaner and less compromising than sitting down and dealing with bad actors. Talking tough and then folding your cards doesn't just show weakness it invites contempt. And that is what we have here.

The Bush-Cheney policy on North Korea was always what Fareed Zakaria once aptly called "a policy of cheap rhetoric and cheap shots." It failed. And after it failed President Bush couldn't come to grips with that failure and change course. He bounced irresolutely between the Powell and Cheney lines and basically ignored the whole problem hoping either that the problem would go away, that China would solve it for us and most of all that no one would notice.

Do you notice now?

From The Mahablog
Well, The Mahablog has dug up a lot of info, here's one snip she found in Newsweek (actually the current issue):
On Sept. 19, 2005, North Korea signed a widely heralded denuclearization agreement with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. Pyongyang pledged to “abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.” In return, Washington agreed that the United States and North Korea would “respect each other’s sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations.”

Four days later, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sweeping financial sanctions against North Korea designed to cut off the country’s access to the international banking system, branding it a “criminal state” guilty of counterfeiting, money laundering and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction.

The Bush administration says that this sequence of events was a coincidence.

Comments on "North Korea With A Bomb"

 

Blogger Pete said ... (10:59 PM) : 

Researcher

I agree North Korea's bomb development represents a failure of Bush policy. However in the simplistic world of electoral politics North Korea presents the ideal menacing threat to scare the a significant number of voters into voting for the Republicans.

Hence voting behavior may be out of sync expectations or logic of us "sophisticated types".

Thanks for visiting my site.

I've linked with your site as its balanced and argues well.

Pete

 

Blogger researcher said ... (12:22 AM) : 

Hey Pete
I think if North Korea had tested closer to the election the "fear factor" would be greater. I don't think they can keep North Korea on the front page long enough though. All Bush can really do right now is call for sanctions. Probably the Democrats will agree.
Now if Bush comes out and starts beating the war drums like we are about to be attacked he'll swing some votes.
It's possible Kim Jong Il will try to escalate things himself, that will make a difference.

 

Blogger Gracie said ... (9:20 AM) : 

It's keeping the Iraq War along with the Abramoff scandal from being top stories in the media which can only help the GOP.

 

Blogger researcher said ... (9:42 AM) : 

That's a good point Gracie, I didn't consider that. Anything that keeps those two issues off the headlines is good for the Republicans.
Understanding North Korea and the history of how we arrived where we are takes a fair amount of reading. Bush only has to say "we have to protect against those evil North Koreans" and that's all many people bother to hear. That helps Pete's point of view also.
I still don't believe that very many people will see North Korea as a real threat. Bush will spin it though, at the moment it's all he's got.

 

Blogger Pete said ... (9:56 AM) : 

researcher

As you point out the "fear factor" may not last long enough before the election.

Perhaps Bush may spin the Iran connection out (to bridge the time gap) along the lines "we must get tough on Iran cos if North Korea now has the Bomb they'll soon supply the technology to Iran". Old issue, new wrapping, new spin.

Pete

 

Blogger roman said ... (5:41 PM) : 

Researcher,

You conveniently skipped over the 8 years of Clinton negotiations with North Korea and make it sound like this nuclear test is some kind of partisan political game. Your left leaning anti-Bush mindset is one where the North Korea nuclear crisis does not even exist. This is without a doubt not the current conventional wisdom. Many far left of center Democrat politicians think the same way you do. That is why the typical American voter will not trust their country's security to a Democratic leadership.

 

Blogger researcher said ... (6:38 PM) : 

Roman, I'm not making an argument to defend Clinton. The facts are that the Bush policies are not working. The only argument from the right is to blame Clinton, like McCain did today.
We have had Bush policy for 6 years and now North Korea has the bomb so how is that good? I don't see what could have been worse. There is plenty of blame and failed policy to go around but for Bush and his supporters to blame this all on Clinton after 6 years in office is pathetic.
I have not denied a nuclear crisis in North Korea nor has any Democrat that I am aware of. That is a Republican straw man. Spinning the "fear factor" is the only card the right can play.
Maybe you can explain what part of the Bush plan I am missing and how good it's working because I just don't see it.

 

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